Florida Boys XC-Glory Days over?
07/26/2012 3:03:13 PM
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I was looking to see who was coming back for 2012, and realized how many of the top boys runners graduated-11 of the top 15 XC times in 2011 were run by Seniors. In looking back over the last few years, these were the total number of runners that ran sub 16:01: 2007-22 2008-39 2009-43 2010-70(!) 2011-56 2012-? There were a lot of tremendous runners the past 3 years that put Florida on the map nationally for long distance runners. Are the "Glory Days" over?
I was looking to see who was coming back for 2012, and realized how many of the top boys runners graduated-11 of the top 15 XC times in 2011 were run by Seniors.

In looking back over the last few years, these were the total number of runners that ran sub 16:01:
2007-22
2008-39
2009-43
2010-70(!)
2011-56
2012-?

There were a lot of tremendous runners the past 3 years that put Florida on the map nationally for long distance runners. Are the "Glory Days" over?
07/26/2012 3:36:23 PM
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Don't think so. 22 boys returning are already sub 16:01 with another 13 within 10 seconds for a total of 35. As the season goes along I would say there would be 15 to 20 of the next tier (16:11 - 16:21) will also dip under 16:01 for a total of 50 to 55. That would be close to 2010 but less than 2011 and higher than 2009. 2011 pre-season numbers were 25 sub 16:01 / 18 within 10 secs. 43 total. Season 56. +13 2010 pre-season numbers were 19 sub 16:01 / 21 within 10 secs. 40 total. Season 70. +30 2009 pre-season numbers were 19 sub 16:01 / 20 within 10 secs. 39 total. Season 43. +4 2010 was a freak year with the competition being the best it has every been statewide, but 2012 will not be a big drop off from 2011 and will certainly be faster than 2009 times wise. The interesting thing to watch is how much not having LER in the mix will affect this discussion. ~Twangster
Don't think so. 22 boys returning are already sub 16:01 with another 13 within 10 seconds for a total of 35. As the season goes along I would say there would be 15 to 20 of the next tier (16:11 - 16:21) will also dip under 16:01 for a total of 50 to 55. That would be close to 2010 but less than 2011 and higher than 2009.

2011 pre-season numbers were 25 sub 16:01 / 18 within 10 secs. 43 total. Season 56. +13
2010 pre-season numbers were 19 sub 16:01 / 21 within 10 secs. 40 total. Season 70. +30
2009 pre-season numbers were 19 sub 16:01 / 20 within 10 secs. 39 total. Season 43. +4

2010 was a freak year with the competition being the best it has every been statewide, but 2012 will not be a big drop off from 2011 and will certainly be faster than 2009 times wise. The interesting thing to watch is how much not having LER in the mix will affect this discussion.

~Twangster
07/26/2012 3:56:50 PM
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[quote=jdpsu]Are the "Glory Days" over?[/quote] @jdpsu They should be, and for two reasons. First, no Little Everglades. Duh! :-p Second, all of the other short courses that have been middle-measured over the years should be remeasured per the newest NFHS cross country guidelines to become inside measured (tangent) courses. It'll never happen, but one can dream. :-] [quote=twangster]The interesting thing to watch is how much not having LER in the mix will affect this discussion.[/quote] @twangster Bingo.
jdpsu wrote:
Are the "Glory Days" over?

@jdpsu They should be, and for two reasons.

First, no Little Everglades. Duh!

Second, all of the other short courses that have been middle-measured over the years should be remeasured per the newest NFHS cross country guidelines to become inside measured (tangent) courses. It'll never happen, but one can dream.


wangster wrote:
The interesting thing to watch is how much not having LER in the mix will affect this discussion.
@twangster Bingo.
07/26/2012 3:57:49 PM
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@twangster I hope you're right. Arroyo may be running alone in a lot of big races....
@twangster I hope you're right. Arroyo may be running alone in a lot of big races....
07/26/2012 4:01:55 PM
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@CoachRaposo It seems like there has always been "racetracks" though? Ed Radice, Chain of Lakes, etc......
@CoachRaposo It seems like there has always been "racetracks" though? Ed Radice, Chain of Lakes, etc......
07/26/2012 4:22:41 PM
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@jdpsu There have been, but this year there won't be any more racetracks with big competition like that, with exception to Chain of Lakes (flrunners 13). Unless a big contingency makes the trek up to Footlocker South. Looking more in depth at Twangster's numbers, 22 returning sub, plus 13 within ten seconds = 35. I'd argue we're probably not going to see many of the 16:11-16:21 kids jump to that sub 16 tier, because without a Little Everglades, each kid is coming in with anywhere from 10/15 seconds tacked on to their PR assuming they ran at State/Pre-State last season. Can they make a 20-30 second jump? Of course, but that's going to be much harder to do without LER. [b]EDIT:[/b] Looking at last year's top 50 returning. I would argue that only eight of those performances were run on a course that would meet the standards of the Raposo wheel for being a true 5k course. http://fl.milesplit.com/rankings/2011/cc/hs/m/5000m?rt=1&co=&m=50&cn=&r=
@jdpsu There have been, but this year there won't be any more racetracks with big competition like that, with exception to Chain of Lakes (flrunners 13). Unless a big contingency makes the trek up to Footlocker South.

Looking more in depth at Twangster's numbers, 22 returning sub, plus 13 within ten seconds = 35. I'd argue we're probably not going to see many of the 16:11-16:21 kids jump to that sub 16 tier, because without a Little Everglades, each kid is coming in with anywhere from 10/15 seconds tacked on to their PR assuming they ran at State/Pre-State last season. Can they make a 20-30 second jump? Of course, but that's going to be much harder to do without LER.

EDIT: Looking at last year's top 50 returning. I would argue that only eight of those performances were run on a course that would meet the standards of the Raposo wheel for being a true 5k course.
http://fl.milesplit.com/rankings/2011/cc/hs/m/5000m?rt=1&co=&m=50&cn=&r=
07/26/2012 5:45:24 PM
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Even if for a year or two the depth of the boys XC 09-11 years isn't matched, I expect it to return pretty quickly, and perhaps bring some of the best years in Florida history. [b]2015[/b] [b]5k XC[/b]-Kurt Convey-15:56 Joe Guidry-16:04 Luke Baldwin 15:54 Sean White-16:23 ... [b]3200[/b]-Sukhi Khosla-9:35 Kurt Convey-9:41 Nick Diaz-9:42 Jared Hines-9:58 ... [b]1600[/b]-Nick Diaz-4:22 Cash Tampa-4:29 Kurt Convey-4:29 Daniel Welch-4:34 Christian Arroyo-4:35 [b]2016[/b] [b]5k XC[/b]-Nic Jacobsen 16:50 Gabriel Correa-17:05 Jesse Millson-17:11 Luke Peterson-17:24 Justin Scoby-17:39 [b]3200[/b]-Nic Jacobsen-9:57 Ben Roberts-10:10 Jesse Millson-10:15 ... [b]3000[/b]-Brandon Marquez-9:37 ... [b]1600[/b]-Brandon Marquez-4:38 Nic Jacobsen 4:34 Gabriel Correa-4:36 Ben Roberts-4:46 Jesse Millson-4:39 ... [b]1500[/b]-Joel Lacy-4:25 [b]2017[/b] [b]3200[/b]-Trevor Kattenberg-10:26 Michael Wilson-10:40 Egan Kattenberg-10:57 8-o I expect the 13'-15' XC seasons to be pretty historical.
Even if for a year or two the depth of the boys XC 09-11 years isn't matched, I expect it to return pretty quickly, and perhaps bring some of the best years in Florida history.

2015

5k XC-Kurt Convey-15:56
Joe Guidry-16:04
Luke Baldwin 15:54
Sean White-16:23
...
3200-Sukhi Khosla-9:35
Kurt Convey-9:41
Nick Diaz-9:42
Jared Hines-9:58
...
1600-Nick Diaz-4:22
Cash Tampa-4:29
Kurt Convey-4:29
Daniel Welch-4:34
Christian Arroyo-4:35

2016

5k XC-Nic Jacobsen 16:50
Gabriel Correa-17:05
Jesse Millson-17:11
Luke Peterson-17:24
Justin Scoby-17:39

3200-Nic Jacobsen-9:57
Ben Roberts-10:10
Jesse Millson-10:15
...
3000-Brandon Marquez-9:37
...
1600-Brandon Marquez-4:38
Nic Jacobsen 4:34
Gabriel Correa-4:36
Ben Roberts-4:46
Jesse Millson-4:39
...
1500-Joel Lacy-4:25

2017

3200-Trevor Kattenberg-10:26
Michael Wilson-10:40
Egan Kattenberg-10:57

I expect the 13'-15' XC seasons to be pretty historical.
07/26/2012 5:51:26 PM
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Trevor Kattenburg , Egan Kattenburg, and Michael Wilson are all 8th graders, class of 2017.
Trevor Kattenburg , Egan Kattenburg, and Michael Wilson are all 8th graders, class of 2017.
07/26/2012 5:54:40 PM
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@coachbutler Typo, fixed.
@coachbutler
Typo, fixed.
07/26/2012 6:23:57 PM
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[quote=Moby] 2016 1600-Brandon Marquez-4:38 Nic Jacobsen 4:34 Gabriel Correa-4:36 Ben Roberts-4:46 Jesse Millson-4:39 ... 1500-Joel Lacy-4:25 I expect the 13'-15' XC seasons to be pretty historical.[/quote] @Moby I think the 2016 class is the one to watch, based on those 8th grade(!) times in the 1500-1600. That being said I think the 2015 season may get closest to 2010, but 70 under 16:01 was "historic".....
Moby wrote:

2016

1600-Brandon Marquez-4:38
Nic Jacobsen 4:34
Gabriel Correa-4:36
Ben Roberts-4:46
Jesse Millson-4:39
...
1500-Joel Lacy-4:25

I expect the 13'-15' XC seasons to be pretty historical.


@Moby I think the 2016 class is the one to watch, based on those 8th grade(!) times in the 1500-1600. That being said I think the 2015 season may get closest to 2010, but 70 under 16:01 was "historic".....
07/26/2012 6:31:23 PM
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Look at the names of the top 50 from 2010-some of the greatest in Florida history....That will be a hard group to match! 1. 14:53.29 Jimmy Clark FL Creekside HS 2011 10/01/2010 flrunners.com Invitational 11 2. 14:55.48 Ryan Pickering FL John I. Leonard HS 2011 10/01/2010 flrunners.com Invitational 11 3. 15:00.20 Armando Del-Valle FL Christopher Columbus HS 2011 10/01/2010 Great American Cross Country Festival 4. 15:03.00 Elliot Clemente FL Belen Jesuit Preparatory School 2012 11/27/2010 Foot Locker South Regional 5. 15:03.71 Max del Monte FL Chamberlain HS 2012 10/01/2010 flrunners.com Invitational 11 6. 15:10.18 Tyler Cardillo FL Charlotte HS 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational 7. 15:13.09 Phil Duncan FL Boone HS 2011 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals 8. 15:14.00 David Kilgore FL Holy Trinity Academy 2011 10/16/2010 11th Annual Holy Trinity Fall Classic 9. 15:16.88 Eduardo Garcia FL Mandarin HS 2011 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals 10. 15:17.97 Logan Kruse FL Dr. Phillips HS 2012 11/06/2010 FHSAA 4A District 3 11. 15:18.61 Nick Posada FL Winter Park HS 2011 10/01/2010 Great American Cross Country Festival 12. 15:19.77 Jl Hines FL Boone HS 2011 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals 13. 15:21.86 Ryan Schnulle FL Charlotte HS 2012 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational 14. 15:23.03 Chase Sutton FL Seminole HS 2011 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals 15. 15:23.69 Will Bridges FL Edgewater HS 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational 16. 15:23.78 Andres Arroyo FL Colonial HS 2013 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational 17. 15:27.00 Mark Gulesian FL Christopher Columbus HS 2011 10/01/2010 Great American Cross Country Festival 18. 15:29.87 Bert Irigoyen FL Ransom Everglades School 2012 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational 19. 15:31.31 Griffin Jaworski FL Trinity Prep 2011 11/13/2010 FHSAA 1A Region 2 20. 15:33.78 Chris Godwin FL Buchholz HS 2012 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals 21. 15:34.58 Whitner Chase FL Trinity Prep 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational 22. 15:34.77 Jacob Kotick FL Pensacola Booker T. Washington HS 2012 11/13/2010 FHSAA 3A Region 1 23. 15:35.39 Peter Fricke FL Pensacola Booker T. Washington HS 2011 11/13/2010 FHSAA 3A Region 1 24. 15:36.10 Riley Doherty FL Leon HS 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational 25. 15:36.25 Billy Anguish FL Winter Park HS 2012 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals 26. 15:37.50 Patrick Swain FL Maclay School 2011 10/23/2010 Panhandle Cross Country Championships 27. 15:37.98 Ryan Gousse FL Trinity Prep 2012 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational 28. 15:38.06 John Hazelton FL Leon HS 2011 11/13/2010 FHSAA 3A Region 1 29. 15:38.28 Daniel Millay FL Dr. Phillips HS 2011 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals 30. 15:38.75 Santiago Zerda FL Coral Glades HS 2011 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals 31. 15:39.62 Dylan Cook FL Coral Reef HS 2011 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals 32. 15:40.00 Joey Castagnaro FL Holy Trinity Academy 2012 10/16/2010 11th Annual Holy Trinity Fall Classic 33. 15:40.00 Timothy Wenger FL Citrus HS 2012 10/19/2010 The Villages - Buffalo Invitational 34. 15:40.02 Thomas Howell FL Niceville HS 2014 11/13/2010 FHSAA 3A Region 1 35. 15:40.96 Joseph Lindsay FL Belen Jesuit Preparatory School 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational 36. 15:41.08 Jose Estevez FL Christopher Columbus HS 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational 37. 15:41.80 Josh Boggs FL Dr. Phillips HS 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational 38. 15:43.42 Jake Covington FL Chamberlain HS 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational 39. 15:44.00 Daniel Moore FL Holy Trinity Academy 2012 10/16/2010 11th Annual Holy Trinity Fall Classic 40. 15:44.63 Nicholas Palermo FL North Broward Prep HS 2012 10/01/2010 flrunners.com Invitational 11 41. 15:44.88 Tim Hendricks FL North Broward Prep HS 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational 42. 15:45.10 Daniel Salas FL Trinity Prep 2013 10/01/2010 Great American Cross Country Festival 43. 15:46.66 Aaron Rojas FL Estero HS 2012 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational 44. 15:47.73 Quincy O'Connor FL Celebration HS 2012 11/06/2010 FHSAA 3A District 7 45. 15:47.84 Bo Nalsen FL HB Plant HS 2011 11/12/2010 FHSAA 4A Region 2 46. 15:49.17 Mitchell Moore FL Olympia HS 2012 11/06/2010 FHSAA 4A District 3 47. 15:49.60 Michael Rosenbach FL Berkeley Prep HS 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational 48. 15:50.00 Joshua Visi-clark FL John I. Leonard HS 2011 11/27/2010 Foot Locker South Regional 49. 15:50.55 Thomas Christenberry FL HB Plant HS 2012 11/12/2010 FHSAA 4A Region 2 50. 15:50.81 Ricy Brown FL Countryside HS 2011 11/12/2010 FHSAA 4A Region 2
Look at the names of the top 50 from 2010-some of the greatest in Florida history....That will be a hard group to match!

1. 14:53.29 Jimmy Clark FL Creekside HS 2011 10/01/2010 flrunners.com Invitational 11
2. 14:55.48 Ryan Pickering FL John I. Leonard HS 2011 10/01/2010 flrunners.com Invitational 11
3. 15:00.20 Armando Del-Valle FL Christopher Columbus HS 2011 10/01/2010 Great American Cross Country Festival
4. 15:03.00 Elliot Clemente FL Belen Jesuit Preparatory School 2012 11/27/2010 Foot Locker South Regional
5. 15:03.71 Max del Monte FL Chamberlain HS 2012 10/01/2010 flrunners.com Invitational 11
6. 15:10.18 Tyler Cardillo FL Charlotte HS 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational
7. 15:13.09 Phil Duncan FL Boone HS 2011 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals
8. 15:14.00 David Kilgore FL Holy Trinity Academy 2011 10/16/2010 11th Annual Holy Trinity Fall Classic
9. 15:16.88 Eduardo Garcia FL Mandarin HS 2011 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals
10. 15:17.97 Logan Kruse FL Dr. Phillips HS 2012 11/06/2010 FHSAA 4A District 3
11. 15:18.61 Nick Posada FL Winter Park HS 2011 10/01/2010 Great American Cross Country Festival
12. 15:19.77 Jl Hines FL Boone HS 2011 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals
13. 15:21.86 Ryan Schnulle FL Charlotte HS 2012 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational
14. 15:23.03 Chase Sutton FL Seminole HS 2011 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals
15. 15:23.69 Will Bridges FL Edgewater HS 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational
16. 15:23.78 Andres Arroyo FL Colonial HS 2013 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational
17. 15:27.00 Mark Gulesian FL Christopher Columbus HS 2011 10/01/2010 Great American Cross Country Festival
18. 15:29.87 Bert Irigoyen FL Ransom Everglades School 2012 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational
19. 15:31.31 Griffin Jaworski FL Trinity Prep 2011 11/13/2010 FHSAA 1A Region 2
20. 15:33.78 Chris Godwin FL Buchholz HS 2012 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals
21. 15:34.58 Whitner Chase FL Trinity Prep 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational
22. 15:34.77 Jacob Kotick FL Pensacola Booker T. Washington HS 2012 11/13/2010 FHSAA 3A Region 1
23. 15:35.39 Peter Fricke FL Pensacola Booker T. Washington HS 2011 11/13/2010 FHSAA 3A Region 1
24. 15:36.10 Riley Doherty FL Leon HS 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational
25. 15:36.25 Billy Anguish FL Winter Park HS 2012 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals
26. 15:37.50 Patrick Swain FL Maclay School 2011 10/23/2010 Panhandle Cross Country Championships
27. 15:37.98 Ryan Gousse FL Trinity Prep 2012 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational
28. 15:38.06 John Hazelton FL Leon HS 2011 11/13/2010 FHSAA 3A Region 1
29. 15:38.28 Daniel Millay FL Dr. Phillips HS 2011 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals
30. 15:38.75 Santiago Zerda FL Coral Glades HS 2011 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals
31. 15:39.62 Dylan Cook FL Coral Reef HS 2011 11/20/2010 FHSAA CC State Finals
32. 15:40.00 Joey Castagnaro FL Holy Trinity Academy 2012 10/16/2010 11th Annual Holy Trinity Fall Classic
33. 15:40.00 Timothy Wenger FL Citrus HS 2012 10/19/2010 The Villages - Buffalo Invitational
34. 15:40.02 Thomas Howell FL Niceville HS 2014 11/13/2010 FHSAA 3A Region 1
35. 15:40.96 Joseph Lindsay FL Belen Jesuit Preparatory School 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational
36. 15:41.08 Jose Estevez FL Christopher Columbus HS 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational
37. 15:41.80 Josh Boggs FL Dr. Phillips HS 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational
38. 15:43.42 Jake Covington FL Chamberlain HS 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational
39. 15:44.00 Daniel Moore FL Holy Trinity Academy 2012 10/16/2010 11th Annual Holy Trinity Fall Classic
40. 15:44.63 Nicholas Palermo FL North Broward Prep HS 2012 10/01/2010 flrunners.com Invitational 11
41. 15:44.88 Tim Hendricks FL North Broward Prep HS 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational
42. 15:45.10 Daniel Salas FL Trinity Prep 2013 10/01/2010 Great American Cross Country Festival
43. 15:46.66 Aaron Rojas FL Estero HS 2012 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational
44. 15:47.73 Quincy O'Connor FL Celebration HS 2012 11/06/2010 FHSAA 3A District 7
45. 15:47.84 Bo Nalsen FL HB Plant HS 2011 11/12/2010 FHSAA 4A Region 2
46. 15:49.17 Mitchell Moore FL Olympia HS 2012 11/06/2010 FHSAA 4A District 3
47. 15:49.60 Michael Rosenbach FL Berkeley Prep HS 2011 10/15/2010 Little Everglades Pre-State Invitational
48. 15:50.00 Joshua Visi-clark FL John I. Leonard HS 2011 11/27/2010 Foot Locker South Regional
49. 15:50.55 Thomas Christenberry FL HB Plant HS 2012 11/12/2010 FHSAA 4A Region 2
50. 15:50.81 Ricy Brown FL Countryside HS 2011 11/12/2010 FHSAA 4A Region 2
07/26/2012 7:14:24 PM
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[quote=jdpsu]Look at the names of the top 50 from 2010-some of the greatest in Florida history....That will be a hard group to match![/quote] @jdpsu Let's see... 24 PRs - Little Everglades (15 Pre-State, 9 State) 4 PRs - Chain of Lakes (flrunners Invite) 4 PRs - Great American 2 PRs - Foot Locker South ^These 34 performances are definitely less than a true inside measure 5k. 16 PRs - Different courses. ^Not sure whether or not these courses would measure up to the Raposo wheel. :-p
jdpsu wrote:
Look at the names of the top 50 from 2010-some of the greatest in Florida history....That will be a hard group to match!

@jdpsu Let's see...

24 PRs - Little Everglades (15 Pre-State, 9 State)
4 PRs - Chain of Lakes (flrunners Invite)
4 PRs - Great American
2 PRs - Foot Locker South
^These 34 performances are definitely less than a true inside measure 5k.

16 PRs - Different courses.
^Not sure whether or not these courses would measure up to the Raposo wheel.
07/26/2012 8:04:06 PM
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@CoachRaposo You don't give any credit for the fact that those were the races they ran against the best in the state or region? Not likely to run your best time in a local invite. Same in track (where I would assume you trust the distance?)-best times are at FSU & Florida Relays or at state meet......just sayin'.
@CoachRaposo You don't give any credit for the fact that those were the races they ran against the best in the state or region? Not likely to run your best time in a local invite. Same in track (where I would assume you trust the distance?)-best times are at FSU & Florida Relays or at state meet......just sayin'.
07/26/2012 8:08:04 PM
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[quote=jdpsu]@CoachRaposo You don't give any credit for the fact that those were the races they ran against the best in the state or region? Not likely to run your best time in a local invite. Same in track (where I would assume you trust the distance?)-best times are at FSU & Florida Relays or at state meet......just sayin'.[/quote] @jdpsu The competitive factors and perfect weather make a difference, but that doesn't change the fact that the course is shorter than a true 5k when talking about many of these courses. As for FSU and UF Relays, those meets are structured to be fast and competitive races, people shooting for PRs. The State Meet is usually a strategic race with performances not as fast (strictly talking about individual distance events, not sprints or relays).
jdpsu wrote:
@CoachRaposo You don't give any credit for the fact that those were the races they ran against the best in the state or region? Not likely to run your best time in a local invite. Same in track (where I would assume you trust the distance?)-best times are at FSU & Florida Relays or at state meet......just sayin'.

@jdpsu The competitive factors and perfect weather make a difference, but that doesn't change the fact that the course is shorter than a true 5k when talking about many of these courses.

As for FSU and UF Relays, those meets are structured to be fast and competitive races, people shooting for PRs. The State Meet is usually a strategic race with performances not as fast (strictly talking about individual distance events, not sprints or relays).
07/26/2012 10:25:34 PM
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Sigh...S-) Ok, Ryan...let's go to track. # of runners by year under 4:25.5 (don't ask...) in 1600 & under 9:40 in 3200: 2008 (2007 XC): 1600:18 3200:16 2009 (2008 XC): 1600:28 3200:20 2010 (2009 XC): 1600:40 3200:31 2011 (2010 XC): 1600:50 3200:35 2012 (2011 XC): 1600:40 3200:29 Again, 2010 XC/2011 T & F were the best with 2009 XC (2010 TF) & 2011 XC (2012 TF) close. When was the last time we had a 3 year stretch of great runners? We'll see what the future holds.....
Sigh...

Ok, Ryan...let's go to track. # of runners by year under 4:25.5 (don't ask...) in 1600 & under 9:40 in 3200:

2008 (2007 XC):
1600:18
3200:16

2009 (2008 XC):
1600:28
3200:20

2010 (2009 XC):
1600:40
3200:31

2011 (2010 XC):
1600:50
3200:35

2012 (2011 XC):
1600:40
3200:29

Again, 2010 XC/2011 T & F were the best with 2009 XC (2010 TF) & 2011 XC (2012 TF) close.

When was the last time we had a 3 year stretch of great runners? We'll see what the future holds.....
07/26/2012 10:53:31 PM
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[quote=jdpsu]Ok, Ryan...let's go to track. # of runners by year under 4:25.5 (don't ask...) in 1600 & under 9:40 in 3200:[/quote] @jdpsu I just think the pendulum is on a downward swing for this season. That's all. 8-)
jdpsu wrote:
Ok, Ryan...let's go to track. # of runners by year under 4:25.5 (don't ask...) in 1600 & under 9:40 in 3200:

@jdpsu I just think the pendulum is on a downward swing for this season. That's all.
07/26/2012 11:28:34 PM
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I agree this year should be less at an elite level, but I think it will be a solid year and think 2013-2015 will be great at the top again.
I agree this year should be less at an elite level, but I think it will be a solid year and think 2013-2015 will be great at the top again.
07/27/2012 11:24:48 AM
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Going back to Ryan & doubting of a couple of courses....Let's take a look at runners at Pre-State that DIDN'T run in the elite race: 1 #3466 Gousse, Ryan 12 Trinity Prep 16:07.83 1 2 #3483 Salas, Daniel 11 Trinity Prep 16:12.77 2 3 #2762 Robison, Blake 12 Melbourne HS 16:33.71 3 4 #3223 Bernard, Courtland 11 Sarasota HS 16:38.50 4 5 #3465 Goldberg, Sam 12 Trinity Prep 16:41.19 5 Most of these runners have run much faster PR's. How about FLrunners NON-ELITE RACE: 1 Mutz, Mark 12 Lakeland Chr 16:03.34 2 Brown, Aesop 11 Fort Myers HS 16:07.24 1 3 Convey, Kurt 9 Coral Reef HS 16:17.88 2 4 Foster, Jakin 12 Circle Chris 16:25.46 3 5 Schmick, Brennan 11 Cypress Creek HS 16:29.64 4 6 Pineiro, Keneth 10 DeLand HS 16:30.84 5 Same thing-most have much faster PRs. IS IT THE COURSE OR THE LEVEL OF COMPETITION?
Going back to Ryan & doubting of a couple of courses....Let's take a look at runners at Pre-State that DIDN'T run in the elite race:
1 #3466 Gousse, Ryan 12 Trinity Prep 16:07.83 1
2 #3483 Salas, Daniel 11 Trinity Prep 16:12.77 2
3 #2762 Robison, Blake 12 Melbourne HS 16:33.71 3
4 #3223 Bernard, Courtland 11 Sarasota HS 16:38.50 4
5 #3465 Goldberg, Sam 12 Trinity Prep 16:41.19 5

Most of these runners have run much faster PR's.

How about FLrunners NON-ELITE RACE:
1 Mutz, Mark 12 Lakeland Chr 16:03.34
2 Brown, Aesop 11 Fort Myers HS 16:07.24 1
3 Convey, Kurt 9 Coral Reef HS 16:17.88 2
4 Foster, Jakin 12 Circle Chris 16:25.46 3
5 Schmick, Brennan 11 Cypress Creek HS 16:29.64 4
6 Pineiro, Keneth 10 DeLand HS 16:30.84 5

Same thing-most have much faster PRs.

IS IT THE COURSE OR THE LEVEL OF COMPETITION?
07/27/2012 12:22:16 PM
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@jdpsu Temperature had a lot to do with the discrepancy at Pre-State. Friday afternoon was much hotter than Saturday morning, and I'm sure competition would have helped too. Believe it or not, at FLRunners, it was warmer and the breeze came up a little bit after the Race of Champions, but it probably didn't influence the race by more than 10 seconds. I'm sure Mutz could've gone quite a bit faster with better competition. I'm sure I've said this before, but I'm more interested in consistency from year to year at courses than whether they are a perfect 5K. There are many great historic HS courses around the Country that aren't 5K but you can compare how generations of runners have run on them. And yes, from year to year, day to day, and even hour to hour, the conditions can change and make any of these courses run 20 seconds faster or slower.
@jdpsu Temperature had a lot to do with the discrepancy at Pre-State. Friday afternoon was much hotter than Saturday morning, and I'm sure competition would have helped too. Believe it or not, at FLRunners, it was warmer and the breeze came up a little bit after the Race of Champions, but it probably didn't influence the race by more than 10 seconds. I'm sure Mutz could've gone quite a bit faster with better competition. I'm sure I've said this before, but I'm more interested in consistency from year to year at courses than whether they are a perfect 5K. There are many great historic HS courses around the Country that aren't 5K but you can compare how generations of runners have run on them. And yes, from year to year, day to day, and even hour to hour, the conditions can change and make any of these courses run 20 seconds faster or slower.
07/27/2012 2:14:08 PM
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Ok, let's look at 2011 3200: 1. 9:02.23c Jimmy Clark FL Creekside HS 2011 06/16/2011 New Balance Outdoor Nationals 2. 9:09.08 Armando Del-Valle FL Christopher Columbus HS 2011 05/07/2011 FHSAA 4A Outdoor State Finals 3. 9:12.17 Ryan Pickering FL John I. Leonard HS 2011 05/07/2011 FHSAA 4A Outdoor State Finals 4. 9:14.06 Jl Hines FL Boone HS 2011 04/21/2011 FHSAA 4A District 4 5. 9:17.69 Nick Posada FL Winter Park HS 2011 03/25/2011 FSU Relays 6. 9:19.74 Santiago Zerda FL Coral Glades HS 2011 03/25/2011 FSU Relays 7. 9:21.44 Whitner Chase FL Trinity Prep 2011 03/25/2011 FSU Relays 8. 9:21.79 Elliot Clemente FL Belen Jesuit Preparatory School 2012 03/25/2011 FSU Relays 9. 9:22.46 Daniel Millay FL Dr. Phillips HS 2011 03/25/2011 FSU Relays 10. 9:23.15 Jose Estevez FL Christopher Columbus HS 2011 03/04/2011 Sam Burley Hall of Fame Invitational 11. 9:23.23 Daniel Salas FL Trinity Prep 2013 03/25/2011 FSU Relays 12. 9:23.32 Kamal Koroso FL Terry Parker HS 2013 05/06/2011 FHSAA 3A Outdoor State Finals 13. 9:23.34 Griffin Jaworski FL Trinity Prep 2011 04/01/2011 Florida Relays 14. 9:24.60 Riley Doherty FL Leon HS 2011 05/06/2011 FHSAA 3A Outdoor State Finals 15. 9:24.93 Thomas Howell FL Niceville HS 2014 05/06/2011 FHSAA 3A Outdoor State Finals 16. 9:25.49 Max del Monte FL Chamberlain HS 2012 03/25/2011 FSU Relays 17. 9:26.60 Andres Arroyo FL Colonial HS 2013 04/15/2011 Metro Conference Championship 18. 9:26.68 Will Bridges FL Edgewater HS 2011 03/25/2011 FSU Relays 19. 9:26.80 Eduardo Garcia FL Mandarin HS 2011 03/04/2011 UNF Spring Break Invitational 20. 9:28.21 Phil Duncan FL Boone HS 2011 05/07/2011 FHSAA 4A Outdoor State Finals 21. 9:30.15 Tim Hendricks FL North Broward Prep HS 2011 04/30/2011 FHSAA 2A Outdoor State Finals 22. 9:31.10 Bert Irigoyen FL Ransom Everglades School 2012 03/25/2011 FSU Relays 23. 9:32.37 Logan Kruse FL Dr. Phillips HS 2012 03/25/2011 FSU Relays 24. 9:33.04 David Kilgore FL Holy Trinity Academy 2011 04/21/2011 FHSAA 1A Region 2 25. 9:33.27 Aaron Rojas FL Estero HS 2012 04/01/2011 Florida Relays 26. 9:33.99 Tyler Cardillo FL Charlotte HS 2011 03/19/2011 USF/George M. Steinbrenner Invitational 27. 9:34.00 Chris Godwin FL Buchholz HS 2012 04/01/2011 Florida Relays 28. 9:34.93 Dieumy Duclos FL Godby HS 2011 04/30/2011 FHSAA 2A Outdoor State Finals 29. 9:34.99 Trent Craig FL Cypress Lake HS 2011 04/21/2011 FHSAA 2A Region 3 30. 9:35.44 Amu Brewer FL Melbourne HS 2011 05/07/2011 FHSAA 4A Outdoor State Finals 31. 9:36.32 Ryan Stafford FL Fort Myers HS 2011 03/25/2011 FSU Relays 32. 9:37.14 Mac Reynolds FL Nease HS 2012 03/25/2011 FSU Relays FSU or UF Relays-14 State Finals-9 "Other"-9 Clearly FSU, UF & Winter Park's track were all "short".....8-)
Ok, let's look at 2011 3200:
1. 9:02.23c Jimmy Clark FL Creekside HS 2011 06/16/2011 New Balance Outdoor Nationals
2. 9:09.08 Armando Del-Valle FL Christopher Columbus HS 2011 05/07/2011 FHSAA 4A Outdoor State Finals
3. 9:12.17 Ryan Pickering FL John I. Leonard HS 2011 05/07/2011 FHSAA 4A Outdoor State Finals
4. 9:14.06 Jl Hines FL Boone HS 2011 04/21/2011 FHSAA 4A District 4
5. 9:17.69 Nick Posada FL Winter Park HS 2011 03/25/2011 FSU Relays
6. 9:19.74 Santiago Zerda FL Coral Glades HS 2011 03/25/2011 FSU Relays
7. 9:21.44 Whitner Chase FL Trinity Prep 2011 03/25/2011 FSU Relays
8. 9:21.79 Elliot Clemente FL Belen Jesuit Preparatory School 2012 03/25/2011 FSU Relays
9. 9:22.46 Daniel Millay FL Dr. Phillips HS 2011 03/25/2011 FSU Relays
10. 9:23.15 Jose Estevez FL Christopher Columbus HS 2011 03/04/2011 Sam Burley Hall of Fame Invitational
11. 9:23.23 Daniel Salas FL Trinity Prep 2013 03/25/2011 FSU Relays
12. 9:23.32 Kamal Koroso FL Terry Parker HS 2013 05/06/2011 FHSAA 3A Outdoor State Finals
13. 9:23.34 Griffin Jaworski FL Trinity Prep 2011 04/01/2011 Florida Relays
14. 9:24.60 Riley Doherty FL Leon HS 2011 05/06/2011 FHSAA 3A Outdoor State Finals
15. 9:24.93 Thomas Howell FL Niceville HS 2014 05/06/2011 FHSAA 3A Outdoor State Finals
16. 9:25.49 Max del Monte FL Chamberlain HS 2012 03/25/2011 FSU Relays
17. 9:26.60 Andres Arroyo FL Colonial HS 2013 04/15/2011 Metro Conference Championship
18. 9:26.68 Will Bridges FL Edgewater HS 2011 03/25/2011 FSU Relays
19. 9:26.80 Eduardo Garcia FL Mandarin HS 2011 03/04/2011 UNF Spring Break Invitational
20. 9:28.21 Phil Duncan FL Boone HS 2011 05/07/2011 FHSAA 4A Outdoor State Finals
21. 9:30.15 Tim Hendricks FL North Broward Prep HS 2011 04/30/2011 FHSAA 2A Outdoor State Finals
22. 9:31.10 Bert Irigoyen FL Ransom Everglades School 2012 03/25/2011 FSU Relays
23. 9:32.37 Logan Kruse FL Dr. Phillips HS 2012 03/25/2011 FSU Relays
24. 9:33.04 David Kilgore FL Holy Trinity Academy 2011 04/21/2011 FHSAA 1A Region 2
25. 9:33.27 Aaron Rojas FL Estero HS 2012 04/01/2011 Florida Relays
26. 9:33.99 Tyler Cardillo FL Charlotte HS 2011 03/19/2011 USF/George M. Steinbrenner Invitational
27. 9:34.00 Chris Godwin FL Buchholz HS 2012 04/01/2011 Florida Relays
28. 9:34.93 Dieumy Duclos FL Godby HS 2011 04/30/2011 FHSAA 2A Outdoor State Finals
29. 9:34.99 Trent Craig FL Cypress Lake HS 2011 04/21/2011 FHSAA 2A Region 3
30. 9:35.44 Amu Brewer FL Melbourne HS 2011 05/07/2011 FHSAA 4A Outdoor State Finals
31. 9:36.32 Ryan Stafford FL Fort Myers HS 2011 03/25/2011 FSU Relays
32. 9:37.14 Mac Reynolds FL Nease HS 2012 03/25/2011 FSU Relays

FSU or UF Relays-14
State Finals-9
"Other"-9

Clearly FSU, UF & Winter Park's track were all "short".....

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